China Taiwan conflict escalates with military drills – Could there be war? Expert analysis

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China Taiwan conflict escalates with military drills – Could there be war? Expert analysis

China's military announced they had carried out assault drills and beach landing directly opposite Taiwan on Monday, with tensions growing between

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China Taiwan conflict escalates with military drills – Could there be war? Expert analysis


China’s military announced they had carried out assault drills and beach landing directly opposite Taiwan on Monday, with tensions growing between the two territories. China has long claimed Taiwan as its own territory but has received push-back from the democratically ruled island. Now Beijing appears to be increasing its military action both by air and sea.

On its Weibo blog, the official People’s Liberation Army Daily newspaper said the drills had been carried out “in recent days” in the southern part of Fujian province.

The action had involved “shock” troops, sappers and boat specialists, the Chinese military newspaper added.

They detailed how troops were “divided into multiple waves to grab the beach and perform combat tasks at different stages”, it added, without providing further details.

The newspaper also released a video of soldiers in boats then storming a beach.

They could be seen throwing smoke grenades, breaking through barbed wire defences and digging trenches in the sand.

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Ms Kelemen said: “Some type of Chinese military action against, or affecting, Taiwan is becoming a more realistic prospect, although still very unlikely.

“This is because the US has taken several steps to strengthen its relationship with the island.

“US President Biden’s latest actions seem to indicate that he sees supporting Taiwan as a pillar of a broader geopolitical strategy to counter China’s growing power in Asia, and his stance has been interpreted by Beijing as being increasingly aggressive.”

Instead of a full-scale attack, Ms Kelemen says China could “take more assertive steps towards Taiwan.”

This could be to “test the United States’ support for the island” and even “deter Washington from pursuing further strengthening of its relations with Taipei”.

Ms Kelemen laid out potential situations we could see going forward.

The intelligence analyst explained: “Among the potential scenarios, we could see China move to seize outlying islands either in the Strait or South China Sea, carry out cyber attacks on critical state infrastructure, and increased submarine activity around Taiwan.

“However, a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by China remains a remote possibility in our assessment, at least in the next couple of years, as this would likely result in major economic and human costs for China.”

Ms Kelemen explained due to Taiwan’s importance in trade, any large-scale attack could adversely affect Beijing.

She said: “Indeed, Taiwan is responsible for around 60 percent of global semiconductors output and around one-third of global shipping passes through surrounding waters – all of which does not seem to be in China’s interest to disrupt.”



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